{"id":186,"date":"2009-07-07T18:26:04","date_gmt":"2009-07-07T22:26:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/?p=186"},"modified":"2010-09-30T18:28:54","modified_gmt":"2010-09-30T22:28:54","slug":"trade-the-markets-7-6-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/?p=186","title":{"rendered":"Trade the Markets 7-6-2009"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re only a few days away from Alcoa kicking off the earnings season so we expect to see the volatility remain with us for some time.\u00c2\u00a0 We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve noted that several commentators are calling this summer range bound or boring but we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve actually seen a good amount of respectable\/tradable movement from our perspective thus far.\u00c2\u00a0 It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s possible that with so many catalysts out there and with earnings about to go full swing over the next month or so that the summer doldrums may only apply to the back half of August.\u00c2\u00a0 For things to become \u00e2\u20ac\u0153boring\u00e2\u20ac\u009d and thus remain range bound we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d expect that the markets need to remain above the lows set this morning or not very much south of there to keep that prognosis healthy.\u00c2\u00a0 We comment on it in our technical section below but for now we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll leave it that there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a very thin margin at present.<\/p>\n

We got neutral several weeks ago on the rally that launched in early March and we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve been growing more and more bearish generally speaking since then.\u00c2\u00a0 Given the way that the market action and price structure have unfolded however, we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve found it necessary to point out scenarios that could have unfolded on the other side<\/em> of the argument.\u00c2\u00a0 We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve always tried to espouse the simple \u00e2\u20ac\u0153keep your eye on the ball\u00e2\u20ac\u009d approach to factoring in the macro fundamentals when conjecturing with the additional aid of charts.\u00c2\u00a0 It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s not different for us now.\u00c2\u00a0 As some of the recent commentaries and Options Specialist newsletters have highlighted, there are several states that are in dire financial straits.\u00c2\u00a0 We also believe that the machinations that have occurred in the banking sector to raise additional capital and to produce FANTASTIC results of late are highly questionable.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking forward, especially when we factor in all of the insane meddling the D.C. has done in short order, we see many reasons as to why a recovery when it arrives really wouldn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t pack the usual punch that we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve seen in recoveries from the recent past.\u00c2\u00a0 However, we have allowed for \u00e2\u20ac\u0153goosing\u00e2\u20ac\u009d on several occasions because we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve seen manic behavior in the last 20 years too many times to rule it out completely.\u00c2\u00a0 The bottom line at this point for us is that we have a hard time believing the optimistic spin and manipulation cycle that we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve just witnessed.\u00c2\u00a0 THEY seem to be trying just a little too hard to sell us on this and that tells<\/em> us something.\u00c2\u00a0 When it comes down to it we just don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t think that we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re completely out of the woods yet and believe that it would take something akin to a complete overhaul of the foolhardy Stimulus package so that it was overwhelmingly front end loaded to mask things effectively for any sustained length of time.\u00c2\u00a0 Without that we believe that we could see many of the problems that have been removed from the TV screens for the past few months resurface with a vengeance in the near future<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

The Technical Picture:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Since we put out a video that focused on the technicals as well, we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll keep this brief.\u00c2\u00a0 We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve highlighted the 88.00ish support line drawn from the pattern and also the 200 SMA.\u00c2\u00a0 The SPYs are clinging to and near these this morning and they really need to or at the very least \u00e2\u20ac\u0153neckline\u00e2\u20ac\u009d monkey business will be a part of our immediate future.\u00c2\u00a0 We put out support levels and targets a few weeks ago at 87.50 and 82.50 and for now we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d stick with those.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course 87.50 may not provide the support that it would have given how things have unfolded price pattern wise to this stage.\u00c2\u00a0 All in all with the internals slightly deteriorating as we noted in our video, this would be a time to be prudent on many levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re only a few days away from Alcoa kicking off the earnings season so we expect to see the volatility remain with us for some time.\u00c2\u00a0 We\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve noted that several commentators are calling this summer range bound or boring but we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve actually seen a good amount of respectable\/tradable movement from our perspective thus far.\u00c2\u00a0 It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-week-ahead"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=186"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.cheapiv.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}